Nationals vs. Braves Pick – 6/10/2023

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves

Game Date: Saturday, June 10 2023
Game Time: 3:10PM CST
View Box Score

My Pick: Washington Nationals +1.5 (-120)

GAME ANALYSIS

Teams have done well when playing the Braves as a road underdog in day games this season. They’re 3-1 SU and 4-0 (100%) against the run line with the Braves only win coming versus an interleague Orioles team. It’s fair to say that every team they’ve played in that spot thus far has been better than the Nationals, but teams haven’t exactly been crushing Washington when playing them as a home favorite in day games, either. Home favorites playing the Nationals in a day game this season are just 6-5 SU and 2-9 (18.2%) against the run line this season. Atlanta has lost both of their games in this spot to other NL East teams, so maybe we see that trend continue against Washington this afternoon.

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta hasn’t only struggled to cover the run line in day games this season. As a home favorite playing on no rest, they’re 7-22 (24.1%) against it. Make it the second game of a series and their record dips below .500 at 4-6 SU and just 2-8 (20%) against the run line. Jared Shuster has started only three times at home for the Braves, he was a favorite in each of those and they’re 0-3 (0%) against it. Going back, the Atlanta Braves are 31-52 (37.3%) against the run line when playing as a home favorite against the Nationals on no rest. That drops to 5-19 (20.8%) when playing them in day games and 0-4 (0%) when playing them in day games that are the second game of a series.

Washington Nationals
Washington has been much more profitable against the run line as a road dog this season where they’re 17-7 (70.8%) as opposed to at home where they’re 8-10 (44.4%). Make them a road dog in day games and their record improves to 9-2 (81.8%) against the run line. When it’s a day game that’s also the second game of a series, they’re now 2-0 (100%) both against the run line and straight up. Although the Nationals do have an ugly 1-4 SU record when MacKenzie Gore starts as a road dog this season, they’ve also managed to keep every single one of those games close and are 5-0 (100%) against the run line through them. Gore’s only win came against another NL East rival (Mets) and the Nationals have kept his games close versus the first place Diamondbacks and second place Marlins, so I think there is a reasonable chance they can at least keep it close versus the Braves this afternoon.

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