Astros vs. White Sox Pick – 5/14/2023

Astros vs White Sox Pick

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Game Date: Sunday, May 14 2023
Game Time: 1:10PM CST
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My Pick: Houston Astros ML (-129)


These two teams will wrap up their three game series in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. Chances of rain in the Windy City are at about 50% all afternoon, but it looks like the rain should hold off until early evening. Winds will be blowing NNE at around 12 MPH which shouldn’t be enough to make a huge difference at Guaranteed Rate Field. Houston won’t have to travel far after this one wraps up because they’ll be heading across town to begin an interleague series versus the Cubs on Monday. As for the White Sox, they’ll get a day off before starting a new series against the Guardians on Tuesday.

Chicago has had their struggles playing as a home underdog this season. They’re now 1-6 overall and 1-2 when playing day games in that spot. That’s partly because they’ve not only struggled to score runs as home dogs, but also given up lots of them. In their seven games as a home underdog this season, the White Sox have allowed a total of 55 runs. Teams have scored 5 or more runs in six of those seven games. In that span they’ve only scored a total of 28 runs which would actually only be 16 if you excluded the single 12 run game they had in the winner against Tampa Bay. Being a home underdog has not been a good spot for someone to be betting the White Sox this season, and I haven’t seen much to make me think that is going to suddenly change. The team is just 5-16 when playing day games as a home underdog and coming off a home favorite win. They’re 6-19 when playing as a home underdog and Lucas Giolito is the starter (3-8 in day games). If all of those awful trends weren’t enough then here’s one more for you. Going all the way back to the 2018 season, when Chicago has been a home underdog playing the third game of a series in the daytime, they’re just 4-21 while going 0-7 since the 2020 season. By now you can probably see where I’m going here. In this spot, the White Sox just haven’t been very good or profitable.

Houston has had their own struggles when it comes to injuries this season. They’re record as a road favorite hasn’t been great at 4-3, but they are a perfect 3-0 when playing day games in that spot. Their perfect day game record has been because of both good pitching and hitting. The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in each of those three day games while allowing 1 run or less in two of them. In fact, today’s starter Hunter Brown had a stunning day game outing on a Sunday back in April when his team held the Twins to just 1 run the entire game. Being a road favorite hasn’t been the best spot for Houston this season. However, being a road favorite in day games certainly has. The team is 14-3 their previous seventeen when playing as a road favorite after a losing as a road underdog (1-1 this season & 4-0 the previous four in day games) and they’re now 2-1 when Hunter Brown has been the starter. Strange as it may be, the Astros two wins with Hunter Brown on the bump both came against other AL Central rivals – the Twins and Tigers. I’ll conclude my analysis of the Astros with the same type of stat I concluded the White Sox with. Going all the way back to the 2022 season, when Houston has been a road favorite playing the third game of a series in the daytime, they’re an impressive 13-1 while going 3-0 this season. Contrary to the White Sox, this is a spot that’s definitely been profitable for the Houston Astros this season and in those before.

My prediction for this game is that the Houston Astros will win. When you look at the trends for each of these teams it’s definitely a much better spot for one than the other. Hunter Brown has had no problem dominating AL Central teams thus far and the two teams he’s beaten both have better records than the White Sox. I expect the Astros to finish this series winning two out of three.

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