Astros vs. Red Sox Pick – 8/30/2023

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox

Game Date: Wednesday, August 30 2023

Game Time: 3:10PM CST

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My Pick: Houston Astros/Boston Red Sox Over 10 (-105)

GAME ANALYSIS

When playing day games as a home underdog, teams are currently on a 19-3-1 Over/Under run since August 12th. Right now only one game fits this trend today – Houston/Boston.

Overall, playing as a road favorite in day games is a spot the Astros have been fairly heavy towards the under in throughout the season. However, it’s also the spot they were in versus the Tigers on Sunday afternoon when they scored 10 runs and allowed 4 in the final two innings to win 17-4 and go well over the total. Houston has been hitting the ball really well since Saturday, scoring 6+ runs in each of their last four and double digits in two of those. Framber Valdez has only pitched one day game on the road this season, but is 1-0 Over/Under in this spot.

As for the Red Sox, they might be just 3-8 Over/Under as a home favorite in August, but as a home underdog they’re now 3-0 Over/Under. As a home favorite, they’ve scored 4+ runs in just five of those eleven games. As a home underdog, they’ve scored 4+ in each of the three (all versus the Dodgers) and while giving up at least 5. Kutter Crawford has started two games as a home underdog this season, and is 2-0 Over/Under in them.

Both of these teams should be able to score some runs this afternoon. Weather currently shows 5 MPH winds which isn’t much, but they should be blowing WSW which is pretty much straight out from home plate. While there are a couple of other games that could fit this overall trend if the lines move before this afternoon, Houston versus Boston is currently the only one and I believe it’s going to push that overall trend to 20-3-1 Over/Under.